2021 MotoGP Predictions
The GPLO Model makes predictions about the 2021 World Championship...and it might surprise you!
With advent of pre-season testing in Qatar, MotoGP’s 2021 season is right around the corner!
There’s a power vacuum at the top with Marquez absent. Five different manufacturers have bikes capable of winning races. The rider field is as talented as it ever has been. We will get to see the bikes on a new track in Finland and some of the coolest tracks from 2020 remain (looking at you Portimao). This is going to be another amazing season!
But the one question on every fan’s mind right now is:
Who is going to win the World Championship?
On-track action may not have begun yet but my GPLO Model has forecast the whole season. Keep reading to see which riders have the best chance of bringing home that coveted prize.
Interested to know more about what I mean when I mention the GPLO model? Check out my last post for a more detailed overview.
Want to sound off in the discussion? Tweet me or leave a comment! Check out my website for more predictions and rankings!
The Marc Marquez Question
Before making predictions I need to address the Marc Marquez question.
Questions remain about when Marquez will return to action. While he is working to try to return by Qatar, Marquez revealed during a recent interview that he is still waiting on bone consolidation and has yet to even begin physical therapy. With a long road to full recovery ahead, there remains speculation that he will miss the first three rounds.
Even when he does come back, he is unlikely to return to his old form immediately. Marquez himself said that the goal 2021 season is
To be again on the bike, to enjoy it again and then step by step try to be fast as I was.
That’s a far cry from the old Marquez ”win at all cost” mentality.
Given the high likelihood that he will either be absent or not in top form, I turned Marquez off in the Model for the whole season. Hopefully, this will give us a better representation of what could possibly happen this season… Assuming Marquez returned for Qatar with no loss in skill, the Model would have him near the top in each race and winning the World Championship handedly. Once Marquez’s return to action is certain, I will reinstate him in the projections.
The 2021 World Championship Prediction
Alex Rins
There you have it! The GPLO Model projects the 2021 MotoGP World Champion will be Alex Rins!
How He Could Win
There is good reason to think 2021 could be Rins’s year. Despite his slow start after injuring his shoulder in Jerez, the Suzuki rider finished 2020 with 139 points and in 3rd place! All this despite crashing out from P2 in both Austria and Le Mans. If he had scored the 40 additional points for finishing those races in P2, he would have beaten teammate Joan Mir for the World Championship by eight points.
Rins also had an incredible bike under him in 2020. Corners or straights, the Suzuki GSX-RR was an all-around performance machine (although it did struggle during qualification). Despite only running two bikes, Suzuki secured 11 podiums! Compare this to Yamaha which had only 1 more podium (12) with four bikes on the grid or Ducati with only nine podiums despite having six bikes!
What Could Go Wrong
While Rins can be fast, he has been plagued by injuries and crash spells. Aside from the missed race in 2020, Rins was out for multiple races in 2017 (his rookie season) due to a broken wrist. In 2018, Rins had five DNFs in the first nine races. If a rider wants to win the World Championship he needs to consistently finish strong, not just win a few races (looking at you Fabio). For Rins to truly be a title contender, he will need to stay healthy and stay out of the gravel.
Franco Morbidelli
For what would be the second year in a row, the GPLO model has Morbidelli finishing second in the World Championship.
How He Could Win
Morbidelli was HOT down the final stretch of 2020. Reeling off two wins and a podium in the final five races, something seemed to click with the Petronas Yamaha rider. He even talked about reaching a trance-like, tripping mental state while racing.
While Morbidelli is the 6th ranked rider by GPLO, the Model thinks he is likely to perform well at almost all tracks. Across the 2020 season, Morbidelli averaged a finish of 5th place – if he can replicate that performance in 2021, he would score 209 points, a haul that would put him in serious title contention.
What Could Go Wrong
By the time 2021 rolls around, the Petronas rider will be running a two year old machine in a sport where there is constant evolution and progress. Yes, I admit his “a-spec” R1M was more consistent in 2020. But, there is a lot of technical might at Yamaha and other manufacturers are not going to be stagnant in 2021 (though there is an engine freeze on all manufacturers in 2021). The risk to Morbidelli’s title hope is that he is stuck with inferior machinery, potentially costing him wins and podiums that he so consistently scored in 2020.
Jack Miller
Maverick Vinales is not the only one thinking Jack Miller has a chance to compete for the World Championship—the GPLO Model expects him to be near the top, too.
How He Could Win
Like Morbidelli, Miller was consistently strong in 2020. When he managed to finish, Miller averaged a 5th place, scoring four podiums throughout the season. But he also had four DNFs and failed to secure any wins. If he is going to win a World Championship, he needs to log a couple wins and remain upright more often.
Miller will be dawning the red suit this year, making him a likely 2021 Championship contender. As Ducati’s #1 rider, he will have the full weight of the Bologna-based factory team behind him. I seem to recall Ducati’s only rider’s World Championship was secured by a certain Aussie.
What Could Go Wrong
Questions remain regarding Ducati’s ability to tackle their Michelin problem (though that obviously didn’t hinder Miller in 2020). But I think the real risk to Miller’s title chance is Ducati’s culture. While they appear to be focusing on improving rider relations, they have a reputation of being rough on riders (and their careers). Miller’s 2021 World Championship hopes ride on not only the Desmosedici GP21 but also his relationship with Ducati bosses.
The Other Manufacturers
KTM
There is no doubt that KTM took a massive step in 2020. The Austrian manufacturer was competitive at many tracks, securing three wins and eight podiums last season. It probably comes as no surprise that the GPLO Model has Miguel Oliveira as highest ranked Championship contender for KTM. But he is projected down in 7th! Why?
The Model still has KTM underperforming on a lot of tracks throughout the 2021 Season. The RC16 has historically struggled at Jerez, Catalunya (where they had two DNFs and a best finish of 11th), and Aragon. If KTM proves to be consistently successful at all tracks, their riders will have a better chance of winning a World Championship.
Honda
If Marquez were competing for the whole season, he would be the Model’s favorite to win the World Championship, hands down. In his absence, Pol Espargaro is the Model’s favorite Honda rider. And he has a good chance. The Model has him in 4th in the World Championship —only five points off Jack Miller. The risk to Espargaro’s 2021 season is the RC213V. Notorious as most difficult bike in the paddock, I think it will likely take Espargaro time to get his head around the machine. Espargaro even acknowledges that he does not have a lot of time to get used to his new bike. But if the Spaniard spends a lot of time in the gravel traps getting used to the Honda, his World Championship hopes will come crashing down.
Full Prediction List
Those are the key highlights from the projections! Here is the full ranking of all the riders. Additionally, check out my website for more pre-season projections and predictions.
